2012: My Predictions

Hmm, although 2011 still has a few ticks left, it appears I was wrong with my predicted downfall of Steve Ballmer despite employee and dissatisfaction and a dead-before-it-started shareholder mini-rebellion.  So what’s coming in 2012, other than the obvious Windows and System Center stories?

In the next week we’ll see lots of “year of the cloud” stories and predictions.  It’s safe to say that “Year of VDI” is dead.  One has to wonder if “year of the cloud” will go down the hype drain hole or will it just find a place in the mix just like VDI did.  I think it’ll be the latter.

We’ll eventually see the emergence of the Microsoft tablet (on ARM).  I think the consumer market is critical for that to generate acceptance by users in the business.  The slate PC just won’t cut it in that market. 

The ultrabook is interesting; I’m thinking about getting one.  But they’re just too expensive.  People see them as just Windows laptops and therefore don’t care that they’re around the same price or cheaper than the MacBook Air, and either near as light or lighter. 

I am no genius to guess that SSD will increase market penetration in the work/consumer PC.  Supplies of spinning disks are dwindling thanks to the Thailand floods and prices are going up.  Businesses/users need to supply/buy machines and the storage has to come from somewhere.  Maybe the boost in sales will help reduce the cost of SSD and make it the norm in the PC/laptop.

And that’s my prognostication done for the year.  Except ….

2012 will be the year of Hyper-V.

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