Speaker: Miha Kralj, Senior Architect Microsoft in Redmond. Let’s just say he won’t have gotten that title by accident. It’s a repeat session and the room is full. I think everyone heard about the first run of the session.
Facts:
- The new data centre can host 12 times more servers than it did before.
- >500,000 IT graduates in China speaking English every year.
- 74% of email is spam
- 119 million spam mails delivered to mailboxes every day. That’s over 50% of mail.
This session will not be technical. It’s about trends and where we think they’re going, i.e. the future isn’t what it used to be, i.e. where’s my hover car and personal jet pack that the BBC promised me when I was a child? I’m quite irate! Seriously, some of this session will work out, some not.
Change Is Inevitable
Story: IBM was the IT giant and nearly disappeared because they didn’t evolve through research and development to match future requirements. From what I saw in a documentary, it was Lotus Notes that saved them. That’s sad (just joking Declan). IBM did not have stupid people – they did eventually get out of the hole. They did have good technology (mainframes) – a "sacred cash cow", i.e. once you achieve it you don’t mess with it. Everything was built around the mainframe. MS nearly killed the mainframe (and IBM) with DOS and Windows and client/server computing.
Once things change history you can’t go back. IT changes more quickly than anything else. Trends are unstoppable. You must be prepared: research-wise and in terms of agility and flexibility. Key to success is identifying the right things and preempt them; once the trend arrives, it’s too late to change. You probably need to get on the next trend. For example, the Dot-Bomb boom. I was employed by a data centre firm that started too late and was competing with every other IT company … everyone who had a modem started a hosting company back in 2000/2001. Those who survived either started before the data centre boom or just after the dot.bomb crash with a new market of web service hosting.
People
The current generation of graduates expect huge Internet access, large cheap storage, etc. Using restricted computing, e.g. GPO, mail controls, browser controls, etc, might send them to other companies, leaving you with lesser quality staff.
Peripherals
Look at input devices. They’re all changing. The Wii is a good example. Input and output devices will change. This could have the biggest impact in terms of universal accesability.
Communications
We’re in the communication era. What method of communication do you use to talk to someone? Phone, email, IM, video, etc? Upgrade the technology and then upgrade the people is the advice … sound like license sales for unified messaging 😉
Vendors
They’re all disappearing. Where’s Wang and Compaq and Amdahl and Olivetti and Tandem and … they’re merged. In 1997 there were 24 major server/PC vendors. Now there are 6 major vendors left. It happened in IT and cars and air transport, etc. Will this change? No. It will happen with the different industries within IT. In fact, we can see it already happening in web hosting in Ireland. The numbers are consolidating. This is inevitable in competitive environments.
What are we buying? A chassis with some management. The components from all brands are pretty much the same.
Carbon Footprint
The IT is as inefficient as aviation. We’ll be targeted by taxation inevitably. Fuel/power costs and taxes are only going one way. Where does the power go? Cooling, power, server components and the CPU. Applications actually use 0.001% of the power generated in the power plant that started out travelling to your data centre. 50% of it is lost before it even gets to the data centre. MS deliberately tries to place data centres near efficient power plants. I posted earlier about on Swedish firm that has 3 of its own wind turbines at their plant.
I posted yesterday how W2008 R2 will make changes. Blade servers and SAN use less power. Virtualisation further reduces the amount of hardware you need.
And the speaker says what I’ve been saying… how green is IT? The components are built globally and shipped to China for assembly. Then the built servers and disks are shipped around the world.
He reckons Iceland is the ideal place to build a data centre. Reasons? Lots of power coming straight out of the ground (steam), they need immigration and external investment, cheap land and it’s cold (good for cooling).
Past Success Is Your Worst Enemy
The new player is desperate and has nothing to loose. They also started because they have a new idea. They’re smaller so they are more agile and can quickly implement new innovations.
As A Service
Software as a Service, e.g. a taxi. It’s not about selling servers. That’s not SaaS. Do you ask for a Ford Mondeo with a 2.5litre engine? No, you ask to go to Leeson Street. The customer doesn’t care about Hyper-V, VMware, VMM, Virtual Centre, etc. They care about service, availability, access, etc.
Cloud Promotes New Relationships
Right now we sell technology and buy assets from. That will change to selling and buying services on a recurring unit basis, e.g. a hotel chain. Right now we thing, CRM server, database server, AD server, etc. It will change to protocols. The boxes and their locations will not be as important in the future.
Transition To Utility Computing
Technology:
- Service Level Agreements (SLA) will be critical. IT is moving to external service providers.
- Standards: Whose standard do you choose to be mobile (customer and service provider decision)
- Bandwidth
- Virtualisation
- New application development
- Massive Provisioning: economies of scale
Providers:
- Mega-computer providers: economies of scale will make it harder for the small operator to compete on cost. You have to compete on service.
- Many SaaS providers: lots of competition and they will consolidate just like in the air and auto industries.
- H/W Providers will become cloud providers: HP, Dell, etc. There will be fewer hardware consumers so they need to use what they know to provide new services.
- Cloud providers will become customers: The clouds will consolidate so companies will become partners (or resellers). These are customers in the chain of cloud services sales.
- Power, power, power: This is so true. It’s already a huge issue.
Consumers:
- Commoditized IT will go to the cloud – email first (already started). Web hosting is well gone.
- Lower barrier to entry: it will be easier to get a business going (already true).
- Dynamic multi-sourcing: you can choose from many partners and potentially work with many of them.
- Modernization of internal IT organisations: it’s easier now to remove legacy deployments and replace with modern hosted solutions (shared costs and centralised experience).
- No more on-site IT: therefore no cost centre and no onsite IT infrastructure engineers.
Regulation and Legislation
No one trusts an unregulated supplier. What’s to stop anyone from setting up and providing a cheap service that is unreliable, insecure, unstable and not highly available. Your data is moving into a cloud so you need regulation to control this. Eventually, someone will be sued for not meeting their SLA.
Social Web
The 2008 USA election has shown the arrival of the social web. It’s true that it impacts hosted IT now. Web developers blog like crazy about the tiniest of issues and make a huge deal from them. Major issues are like atomic explosions. Be aware of social web activity as both a positive and negative thing.
Web.Next
There will be pervasive and ubiquitous networking. Identity, privacy and trust are the key issues.
Will people in the future care about physical presence? 20-somethings consider MySpace and SecondLife to be the same as in-person interaction. Your digital identity will be very important. See the previous point.
How do you target people? How do you know what/who they are? Marketing uses demographics. If you’re in a digital world you can be anything you want to be, e.g. a 2 foot green dwarf.
Purchasing
There’s the future, emerging, wide application and obsolete stages in a product. The best value is in the mid-end of the emerging phases.
Sell The Sizzle, Not The Steak
Everyone has steak. Make it sparkle. Be different. Find out what the others are doing. Don’t do it better, do something else.
Globalisation
IT is available everywhere. As a graduate, how do you start? It’s all outsourced to low cost countries where there is more motivation to succeed. Will China, India, etc, dominate the cloud?
Jobs Of The Future
PHD educated staff won’t be important anymore. 7 year old knowledge is useless. We live in a current knowledge and skill economy. In house IT jobs will be rare when cloud computing. There will be more automation and less humans (already happening with optimised IT). Those humans are split between a few architects and a few junior operators. The IT career of today will not exist in 10 years time. You will need to be a dual identity person, e.g. IT/Sales, IT/management, IT/marketing.
Advice
- Think beyond tomorrow. Think about what we have now, where we will be tomorrow and where we will be beyond that.
- Identify what the trends will do to your business and what it is you want to do to compete or survive. Be prepared.
- What is it you want to do in 10 years?
Summary Of My Thoughts
This is not the first time I’ve heard this message. The operator/architect thing is a common theme. I’m in the hosting industry and I know these trend has already started.
I don’t necessarily agree with everything:
- Some of what was said by a MS employee coincides with MS launching Azure and also trying to encourage early adopter consumption of technologies such as Vista and Windows Server 2008.
- I think the small operator will always have a niche role.
- Not everything will globalize. Their are privacy, data protection and espionage issues to be concerned with.
- Not everyone will outsource like we think of it now. Some will be big enough to internally outsource to a subsidiary. Some will just not outsource for secrecy reasons.
- Development of staff will require a middle tier of IT staff to be retained to bridge the gap between going from operator to architect. Otherwise, all IT would surely end after the architect generation dies.