Speaker: Miha Kralj, Senior Architect Microsoft in Redmond.\u00a0 Let’s just say he won’t have gotten that title by accident. It’s a repeat session and the room is full.\u00a0 I think everyone heard about the first run of the session.\n<\/p>\n
Facts:<\/p>\n
This session will not be technical.\u00a0 It’s about trends and where we think they’re going, i.e. the future isn’t what it used to be, i.e. where’s my hover car and personal jet pack that the BBC promised me when I was a child?\u00a0 I’m quite irate!\u00a0 Seriously, some of this session will work out, some not.\n<\/p>\n
Change Is Inevitable<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n Story: IBM was the IT giant and nearly disappeared because they didn’t evolve through research and development to match future requirements.\u00a0 From what I saw in a documentary, it was Lotus Notes that saved them.\u00a0 That’s sad (just joking Declan).\u00a0 IBM did not have stupid people – they did eventually get out of the hole.\u00a0 They did have good technology (mainframes) – a "sacred cash cow", i.e. once you achieve it you don’t mess with it.\u00a0 Everything was built around the mainframe.\u00a0 MS nearly killed the mainframe (and IBM) with DOS and Windows and client\/server computing.\n<\/p>\n Once things change history you can’t go back.\u00a0 IT changes more quickly than anything else.\u00a0 Trends are unstoppable.\u00a0 You must be prepared: research-wise and in terms of agility and flexibility.\u00a0 Key to success is identifying the right things and preempt them; once the trend arrives, it’s too late to change.\u00a0 You probably need to get on the next trend.\u00a0 For example, the Dot-Bomb boom.\u00a0 I was employed by a data centre firm that started too late and was competing with every other IT company … everyone who had a modem started a hosting company back in 2000\/2001.\u00a0 Those who survived either started before the data centre boom or just after the dot.bomb crash with a new market of web service hosting.\n<\/p>\n People<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n The current generation of graduates expect huge Internet access, large cheap storage, etc.\u00a0 Using restricted computing, e.g. GPO, mail controls, browser controls, etc, might send them to other companies, leaving you with lesser quality staff.\n<\/p>\n Peripherals<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n Look at input devices.\u00a0 They’re all changing.\u00a0 The Wii is a good example.\u00a0 Input and output devices will change.\u00a0 This could have the biggest impact in terms of universal accesability.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n Communications<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n We’re in the communication era.\u00a0 What method of communication do you use to talk to someone?\u00a0 Phone, email, IM, video, etc?\u00a0 Upgrade the technology and then upgrade the people is the advice … sound like license sales for unified messaging \ud83d\ude09\n<\/p>\n Vendors<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n They’re all disappearing.\u00a0 Where’s Wang and Compaq and Amdahl and Olivetti and Tandem and … they’re merged.\u00a0\u00a0 In 1997 there were 24 major server\/PC vendors.\u00a0 Now there are 6 major vendors left.\u00a0 It happened in IT and cars and air transport, etc.\u00a0 Will this change?\u00a0 No.\u00a0 It will happen with the different industries within IT.\u00a0 In fact, we can see it already happening in web hosting in Ireland.\u00a0 The numbers are consolidating.\u00a0 This is inevitable in competitive environments.\n<\/p>\n What are we buying? A chassis with some management.\u00a0 The components from all brands are pretty much the same.\n<\/p>\n Carbon Footprint<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n The IT is as inefficient as aviation.\u00a0 We’ll be targeted by taxation inevitably.\u00a0 Fuel\/power costs and taxes are only going one way.\u00a0 Where does the power go?\u00a0 Cooling, power, server components and the CPU.\u00a0 Applications actually use 0.001% of the power generated in the power plant that started out travelling to your data centre.\u00a0 50% of it is lost before it even gets to the data centre.\u00a0 MS deliberately tries to place data centres near efficient power plants.\u00a0 I posted earlier about on Swedish firm that has 3 of its own wind turbines at their plant.\n<\/p>\n I posted yesterday how W2008 R2 will make changes.\u00a0 Blade servers and SAN use less power.\u00a0 Virtualisation further reduces the amount of hardware you need.\n<\/p>\n And the speaker says what I’ve been saying… how green is IT?\u00a0 The components are built globally and shipped to China for assembly.\u00a0 Then the built servers and disks are shipped around the world.\n<\/p>\n He reckons Iceland is the ideal place to build a data centre.\u00a0 Reasons?\u00a0 Lots of power coming straight out of the ground (steam), they need immigration and external investment, cheap land and it’s cold (good for cooling).\u00a0\n<\/p>\n Past Success Is Your Worst Enemy<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n The new player is desperate and has nothing to loose.\u00a0 They also started because they have a new idea.\u00a0 They’re smaller so they are more agile and can quickly implement new innovations.\n<\/p>\n As A Service<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n Software as a Service, e.g. a taxi.\u00a0 It’s not about selling servers.\u00a0 That’s not SaaS.\u00a0 Do you ask for a Ford Mondeo with a 2.5litre engine?\u00a0 No, you ask to go to Leeson Street.\u00a0 The customer doesn’t care about Hyper-V, VMware, VMM, Virtual Centre, etc.\u00a0 They care about service, availability, access, etc.\n<\/p>\n Cloud Promotes New Relationships<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n Right now we sell technology and buy assets from.\u00a0 That will change to selling and buying services on a recurring unit basis, e.g. a hotel chain.\u00a0 Right now we thing, CRM server, database server, AD server, etc.\u00a0 It will change to protocols.\u00a0 The boxes and their locations will not be as important in the future.\n<\/p>\n Transition To Utility Computing<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n Technology:<\/p>\n Providers:<\/p>\n Consumers:<\/p>\n Regulation and Legislation<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n No one trusts an unregulated supplier.\u00a0 What’s to stop anyone from setting up and providing a cheap service that is unreliable, insecure, unstable and not highly available.\u00a0 Your data is moving into a cloud so you need regulation to control this.\u00a0 Eventually, someone will be sued for not meeting their SLA.\n<\/p>\n Social Web<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n The 2008 USA election has shown the arrival of the social web.\u00a0 It’s true that it impacts hosted IT now.\u00a0 Web developers blog like crazy about the tiniest of issues and make a huge deal from them.\u00a0 Major issues are like atomic explosions.\u00a0 Be aware of social web activity as both a positive and negative thing.\n<\/p>\n Web.Next<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n There will be pervasive and ubiquitous networking.\u00a0 Identity, privacy and trust are the key issues.\n<\/p>\n Will people in the future care about physical presence?\u00a0 20-somethings consider MySpace and SecondLife to be the same as in-person interaction.\u00a0 Your digital identity will be very important.\u00a0 See the previous point.\n<\/p>\n How do you target people?\u00a0 How do you know what\/who they are?\u00a0 Marketing uses demographics.\u00a0 If you’re in a digital world you can be anything you want to be, e.g. a 2 foot green dwarf.\n<\/p>\n Purchasing<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n There’s the future, emerging, wide application and obsolete stages in a product.\u00a0 The best value is in the mid-end of the emerging phases.\n<\/p>\n Sell The Sizzle, Not The Steak<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n Everyone has steak.\u00a0 Make it sparkle.\u00a0 Be different.\u00a0 Find out what the others are doing.\u00a0 Don’t do it better, do something else.\n<\/p>\n Globalisation<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n IT is available everywhere.\u00a0 As a graduate, how do you start?\u00a0 It’s all outsourced to low cost countries where there is more motivation to succeed.\u00a0 Will China, India, etc, dominate the cloud?\n<\/p>\n Jobs Of The Future<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n PHD educated staff won’t be important anymore.\u00a0 7 year old knowledge is useless.\u00a0 We live in a current knowledge and skill economy.\u00a0 In house IT jobs will be rare when cloud computing.\u00a0 There will be more automation and less humans (already happening with optimised IT).\u00a0 Those humans are split between a few architects and a few junior operators.\u00a0 The IT career of today will not exist in 10 years time.\u00a0 You will need to be a dual identity person, e.g. IT\/Sales, IT\/management, IT\/marketing.\n<\/p>\n Advice<\/u><\/strong><\/p>\n Summary Of My Thoughts<\/u><\/strong>\n<\/p>\n This is not the first time I’ve heard this message.\u00a0 The operator\/architect thing is a common theme.\u00a0 I’m in the hosting industry and I know these trend has already started.\n<\/p>\n I don’t necessarily agree with everything:<\/p>\n Speaker: Miha Kralj, Senior Architect Microsoft in Redmond.\u00a0 Let’s just say he won’t have gotten that title by accident. It’s a repeat session and the room is full.\u00a0 I think everyone heard about the first run of the session. Facts: The new data centre can host 12 times more servers than it did before. >500,000 … Continue reading “Day 5: How IT Will Change In The Next 10 Years And Why Should You Care.”<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"_wpcom_ai_launchpad_first_post":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[42],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-9259","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-teched-emea-it-pro"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t\n
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